I would suggest you take a peek at the website listed at the end of this story in Sunday’s Bee and read some of the reports posted at the 2005 symposium. I did, and came away with the distinct impression (after working my way through the highly technical language) that the American River is a prime destination for Pineapple Express storms and the subsequent flooding run-off, and the current policy of increasing the flow from the dam to accommodate the storm water is risky at best.
During the 1986 and 1997 storms the flow down the American River reached 115,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) from Folsom Dam, which is 15,000 cfs over the intended capacity of the levees, and the current plan being considered of building an additional spillway to be able to increase that flow during storms does not seem the best option.
We think a major new dam on the American River, to capture the storm water, makes a lot more sense, for the Parkway and the citizens of Sacramento. And, speaking for myself, I don't want to have time to "prepare for floods", I want to see them stopped.
Here is an exerpt:
"Somewhere out there is a monster storm that will swamp Sacramento.
"It probably won't arrive this winter, but it's out there.
"And when this Godzilla of a storm takes aim at Northern California, there is a strong chance that Wayne Higgins will be among the first to take notice.
"Higgins, a climatologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is a leading authority on a quirky atmospheric oscillation that encircles the world's tropics. This wave, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, moves west to east in cycles of 30 to 60 days. It is weak in some years, strong in others. When it is strong, it can produce tremendous amounts of moisture in the western Pacific.
"When this pool of moisture is blown just east of the island of Borneo, Higgins takes notice, particularly during the winter. "At that point, we know that seven to 10 days later, there is enhanced likelihood for a rainy period on the Pacific Northwest coast," says Higgins, lead climate specialist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.
"Sacramento is a long way from Borneo, but our ability to prepare for floods is linked with seeing weather several thousands miles away. When conditions are just right, the jet stream dips down and picks up the accumulated atmospheric moisture of the western Pacific, then hurtles it toward California and Oregon in a narrow ribbon of wet mayhem.
"This type of storm - popularly known as a Pineapple Express - walloped Northern California in 1986 and 1997, dumping two feet of rain in three days in some areas and flooding thousands of homes. Scientists now know much more about how these storms originate; how they shift intensities while approaching the coast; how they dump such enormous volumes of rain on the Sierra and other mountain ranges.
"Yet even with advances in forecasting, meteorologists still have work to do in reliably predicting which river basins will take the brunt of these storms. Precise forecasts could save lives. With a few days of solid warning, emergency responders could evacuate the elderly and infirm. Operators of dams could release extra water and be assured they wouldn't be left with an empty reservoir when the skies clear. "
