Friday, May 26, 2006

Active Hurricane Season

In this report from yesterday, The National Academy predicts an active hurricane season, which is not real good news for New Orleans, however, earlier reports indicate the work done there by the Army Corps (who will also be repairing our levees) appears able to provide needed protection.

Here is an excerpt.

Active 2006 Hurricane Season Predicted
By Lisa Pickoff-White

May 25 - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that the coming Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average, with 13 to 16 tropical storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean during the six-month period beginning on June 1. Of these storms, between eight and 10 are likely to become hurricanes, and three to six could become Category 3 strength or higher.

Warmer ocean water, lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a certain type of wind pattern favor the development of numerous high-intensity storms.

Several National Research Council reports deal with climate and weather. Lessons Learned Between Hurricanes: From Hugo to Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, the summary of a 2005 workshop, explores strategies for countering the challenges presented by hurricanes and looks at opportunities for emergency managers, academics, government agencies, and the general public to learn from past hurricanes and other disasters. A 2003 workshop summary, Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information, explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies that illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting long-term climate change.

Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling discusses why dealing with climate-related disasters requires the best possible information and recommends how to enhance the effectiveness of climate modeling. Making Climate Forecasts Matter identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts and examines how we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.