For all the dire predictions, it is nice to have a date certain to determine the validity of their research, even with the mitigating factors that might be brought to bear.
Reservoirs could dry out by 2021
Colorado River crisis looming, report says
By Mike Lee
STAFF WRITER
and Michael Gardner
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE
February 13, 2008
Colorado River reservoirs that serve 20 million people in the Southwest could essentially run out of water in 13 years based on current climate and water-use trends, researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography said yesterday.
That would jolt San Diego County, which relies heavily on the Lake Powell-Lake Mead system for water. Several million people across the Southwest also get hydroelectric power from the reservoir's dams, which the scientists said may suffer an “abrupt drop” in production in about 10 years if reservoir levels continue to fall.
Major industries – from tourism to biotech – would be affected by such a shortage, which already is starting to force changes. A large marina on Lake Mead recently was forced to move its floating docks to deeper water.
This latest warning could escalate pressure for more conservation, either voluntary or mandatory, several water experts suggest.
The report is the first in a peer-reviewed journal to pin a date on when the river's water level would drop so low that reservoir water could no longer be drawn by gravity, said authors Tim Barnett and David Pierce, scientists at Scripps, which is part of the University of California San Diego. The paper was accepted for publication by the American Geophysical Union, an international society of Earth and space scientists.
“We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was coming at us,” Barnett said. “Make no mistake, this water problem is not a scientific abstraction, but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest.”
Several other reports in recent years agree that the Colorado River is heading for a crisis, in part because climate change appears to mean less precipitation in the river basin.
“Based on the assumptions that (Barnett and Pierce) made, I certainly don't disagree with this conclusion,” said Terry Fulp, operations manager of the Lower Colorado River for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
Fulp added a caveat: Long-term changes in river flows can't be predicted precisely, so the Scripps calculation could be off by several years.
